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Which Pokémon set has the best pull rates?

By Mumbles · Published Oct 20, 2026 · Checked Oct 20, 2026 · 6 min read

The short answer

No set has officially published pull rates, so any ranking by odds is built on guesses. Rank them by what the cards are worth instead and the answer changes completely: the best set to open depends on whether you want one big shot at a headline card or a better chance at a decent one.

This question gets asked constantly and answered badly, because the obvious way to answer it does not work. You cannot rank sets by pull rate. Nobody publishes pull rates.

Why the usual answer is nonsense

The Pokémon Company has never released per-card odds for an English set. Every ranking you find that claims one set has better rates than another is comparing two community counts, each built on a few hundred packs, usually counted by different people using different methods.

Two estimates that unreliable cannot be meaningfully subtracted from each other. The ranking is noise with an order imposed on it.

If a page ranks sets by pull rate without stating a sample size for each, it has made the ranking up. That is not a harsh reading. There is no other source it could have come from.
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Rank by value instead, because you can

What is knowable is what the cards are worth. We hold live prices for over thirteen thousand Pokémon cards, refreshed daily, and sorting a set by those prices tells you something real about opening it.

Do that across the modern sets and they fall into two shapes.

Top-heavy sets have one card worth a great deal and a steep fall behind it. Prismatic Evolutions is the clearest example: one card carries the whole set. Most boxes disappoint badly, because nearly all the value sits in a card you will probably not pull. The upside, when it lands, is enormous.

Flat sets spread their value across several cards you have a realistic chance of hitting. Mega Evolution is the clearest example on our data. The typical box lands closer to the average, and the average is less painful. There is also less to talk about afterwards.

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So which is best?

It depends on what you actually want, and being honest with yourself about that is worth more than any odds table.

If you want the story and the chance at something enormous, open a top-heavy set and accept that most boxes will not deliver. If you want to lose less on average and hit something decent more often, open a flat one. Neither wins on average, because sealed product is priced above its contents. One just fails more gently than the other.

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Every set, with its own numbers

We have written one page per set, each with a live table of what its cards are worth today. Start with the set you were already thinking about.

Each of those pages does the same thing: says plainly that the odds are unpublished, then shows you the half that can be checked.

Then: what a box holds, when grading pays, and what packs actually pay back.

Questions people also ask

Which Pokemon packs have the best pull rates?

No set publishes its rates, so any ranking by odds is invented. Rank by what the cards are worth instead, which is what the set pages above do.

What is the best booster box to buy for value?

The flatter sets give a typical box closer to its average. The top-heavy sets give a worse typical box and a much bigger best case.

Do older Pokemon sets have better pull rates?

Configurations have changed a lot over the years, and older sets have no published rates either. Judge them on card values and on print run length instead.

The short version

No set has published pull rates, so no honest ranking by odds exists. Rank by value instead. Top-heavy sets are the exciting open with the worse typical outcome; flat sets are the duller open with the better one. Pick the failure mode you prefer.

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