Mega Evolution is worth writing about for a reason that has nothing to do with its odds. It is the flattest set we hold prices for, and flat sets behave completely differently when you open them.
The odds, briefly and honestly
They are not published. The Pokémon Company has never released per-card pull rates for an English set, so every figure online is somebody counting case openings. Useful, unofficial, and quoted with far more precision than the sample size supports.
Why a flat set matters
Sort a set by what a PSA 10 fetches and you usually see a cliff: one card at several thousand, then a steep fall. Mega Evolution does not do that. Its top card is worth a fraction of what Prismatic Evolutions' headliner commands, and the cards behind it sit much closer together.
| Card | Raw | PSA 10 |
|---|---|---|
| Mega Lucario Ex #188 | $245.00 | $700.00 |
| Bulbasaur [Stamped] #133 | $23.99 | $700.00 |
| Mega Lucario Ex #179 | $174.98 | $365.00 |
| Mega Gardevoir ex #178 | $163.20 | $349.65 |
| Mega Venusaur Ex #177 | $134.96 | $229.00 |
| Mega Latias ex #181 | $76.89 | $193.25 |
| 3 Pack Blister: Golduck | $30.05 | $166.66 |
| Mega Kangaskhan ex #182 | $58.00 | $141.00 |
| Lillie's Determination #184 | $58.87 | $134.50 |
| Mega Absol Ex #180 | $51.87 | $123.00 |
We hold 120 priced cards for this set. Here is what that flat shape means in practice. In a top-heavy set almost all the expected value sits in one card you will almost certainly not pull, so most boxes disappoint badly. In a flat set the value is spread across cards you have a realistic chance of hitting, so the typical box lands closer to its average.
That is not the same as good value. The average is still below what you paid, because that is how sealed product works. It means the outcome is less of a lottery, which some people prefer and others find dull.
What about a booster box?
The same logic scales up. A box of a flat set is more predictable: you are likelier to land near the average and less likely either to lose badly or to hit a jackpot. Work out roughly what an average box returns from the table above, set it against the box price, and you have a better answer than any pull rate page can give you.
Then check the singles. If the two or three cards you actually want cost less as singles than the box does, the decision makes itself, unless the opening is the point. Which is fine. Just be honest about which of the two you are buying.
Related: how many packs a box holds, how the sets compare, and our simulator if you want to feel the maths before paying for it.
Questions people also ask
How many packs are in a Mega Evolution booster box?
36, the standard Pokemon booster box count. The enhanced and special versions hold different amounts and state it on the box.
Does Mega Evolution have good pull rates?
The rates are unpublished, but the value is unusually evenly spread across its top cards. That makes the typical box outcome closer to the average than in a top-heavy set.
Is the Mega Evolution booster box worth buying?
Work out what the realistic hits in the table above are worth, compare that to the box price, and check the singles. If the two cards you want cost less as singles, the box is entertainment.
The short version
Mega Evolution has no published pull rates and no monster chase card. It is flatter and more predictable than most sets, which makes the box maths easier to do and slightly less painful to look at.